It just seemed like days ago when the World Cup kicked off on June 12, but time has flown by and the Third Place game as well as World Cup Final are almost here.
Before we dive into the latest odds for the World Cup Final and Third Place game, here’s an update regarding how the odds are determined.
Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged into a Poisson random number generator. Using weights derived from historical regression analysis and the knowledge that soccer goals per game follow a Poisson distribution, the generator churns out game outcomes. Structuring the matches into the World Cup’s schedule and storing the results for a half million simulations gives us the analysis below.
And now, the odds.
Odds on winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup Final
Germany – 50.07%
Argentina – 49.93%
It’s essentially a coin flip regarding who will win.
Odds on winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup Third Place game
Brazil – 73%
Netherlands – 27%
Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.
The World Cup Final kicks off on Sunday at 3pm ET, while the Third Place match starts at 4pm ET on Saturday.
SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.