# Odds On Who Will Win the World Cup Final and Third Place Game

It just seemed like days ago when the World Cup kicked off on June 12, but time has flown by and the Third Place game as well as World Cup Final are almost here.

Before we dive into the latest odds for the World Cup Final and Third Place game, here’s an update regarding how the odds are determined.

Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged into a Poisson random number generator. Using weights derived from historical regression analysis and the knowledge that soccer goals per game follow a Poisson distribution, the generator churns out game outcomes. Structuring the matches into the World Cup’s schedule and storing the results for a half million simulations gives us the analysis below.

And now, the odds.

Odds on winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup Final

Germany – 50.07%
Argentina – 49.93%

It’s essentially a coin flip regarding who will win.

Odds on winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup Third Place game

Brazil – 73%
Netherlands – 27%

Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.

The World Cup Final kicks off on Sunday at 3pm ET, while the Third Place match starts at 4pm ET on Saturday.

## 4 thoughts on “Odds On Who Will Win the World Cup Final and Third Place Game”

1. Bo says:

hey gaffer, do we know yet who will commentate both games?

1. Christopher Harris says:

Jon Champion and Stewart Robson for the Third Place game. And Macca and Ian Darke for the World Cup Final.

2. R.O says:

“Odds on winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup Third Place game – Brazil – 73%”

That seems rather high. I know Van Gaal has come out against the play of 3rd place games but the players are still professional and don’t want to lose any game.

I don’t feel the Brazilian team has fixed their problems in just 4 days.

3. Flyvanescence says:

These are the same rating system that made Brazil 80/20 to beat Germany. Please the final is not 50/50!