Now that four of the Round of 16 World Cup match have concluded, we know which 12 teams are still in with a chance of lifting the trophy and which 4 teams are out. Chris McFarland of Share Draft has re-run the data simulations to determine who are the teams most likely to win the World Cup.
First, an update regarding how the odds are determined.
Using Elo ratings (ER), an elegant metric for calculating current strength based on weighted recent relative performance, each match’s expected outcome was plugged into a Poisson random number generator. Using weights derived from historical regression analysis and the knowledge that soccer goals per game follow a Poisson distribution, the generator churns out game outcomes. Structuring the matches into the World Cup’s schedule and storing the results for a half million simulations gives us the analysis below.
Here are the top 12 teams most likely to win the World Cup:
1. Brazil 55.63%
2. Argentina 15.81%
3. Netherlands 13.15%
4. Germany 7.46%
5. Colombia 4.64%
6. France 1.81%
7. Belgium 0.52%
8. USA 0.37%
9. Costa Rica 0.32%
10. Switzerland 0.21%
11. Nigeria 0.08%
12. Algeria 0.01%
Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.
Read Chris’s original simulations of who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.
SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.