USA Has 47% Chance Of Beating Belgium; Updated Odds For Each World Cup Round of 16 Game

Now that the Group stages of the World Cup have concluded, it’s time to review the upcoming Round of 16 games to see which teams have the best odds of advancing through to the quarter-finals of World Cup 2014.

Before we share the data, here’s a note from the editor.

Editor’s note: Chris McFarland’s analysis beat Nate Silver’s Soccer Power Index predictions for the Group stages of the World Cup. Silver’s predictions were 56.25% correct, while McFarland scored a 62.5% success rate. McFarland’s analysis that the USA would advance from the Group stage was also correct.

Round of 16 odds:

Saturday, June 28

Round of 16 — Brazil vs Chile, Noon ET

Brazil 88%
Chile 12%

Round of 16 — Uruguay vs Colombia, 4pm ET, ABC, Watch ABC,

Colombia 60%
Uruguay 40%


Sunday, June 29

Round of 16 — Mexico vs Netherlands, Noon ET

Netherlands 68%
Mexico 32%

Round of 16 — Costa Rica vs Greece, 4pm ET

Costa Rica 49.56%
Greece 50.44% 


Monday, June 30

Round of 16 — France vs Nigeria, Noon ET

France 73%
Nigeria 27%

Round of 16 — Germany vs Algeria, 4pm ET

Germany 92%
Algeria 8%


Tuesday, July 1

Round of 16 — Argentina vs Switzerland, Noon ET

Argentina 84%
Switzerland 16%

Round of 16 — USA vs Belgium, 4pm ET

Belgium 52.58%
USA 47.42%

19 thoughts on “USA Has 47% Chance Of Beating Belgium; Updated Odds For Each World Cup Round of 16 Game”

  1. Wow, I really disagree with the U.S. being the underdog. We went made it out of tough group and Belgium has failed to impress in a rather easy group.

    Has it hit anyone else that either Greece or Costa Rica will make the quarterfinals? That seems mind-boggling to me.

    1. U.S talents are above average but we win because we are playing with 100% heart versus 50% to 70% for other top teams.

        1. Roberto Martinez spoke about Belgium on ESPN. He said that Belgium have a team of outstanding Individual talent but don’t seem to have the team cohesion. And in this world cup, team togetherness and cohesion has shown to be the “x” factor for teams winning.

  2. Colombia should be higher especially with Suárez out. Mexico is being underrated, while Costa Rica should be favorites over Greece.

    I’d rather the USA be “underdogs” in matches then expected to win. It takes the pressure off the players and seems to give them something to rally around.

  3. This is so american! You cant quantify the significance of a south american world cup for teams like mex and crc. Chile has an excellent chance of beating brazil, colombia are incredible and uruguay are through on a suarez brace and a questionable card.

    Usa drew/beat an injured portugal and a disintegrating ghana, belgium will be your first real opponent.

  4. thos odds are a joke right , remmeber they vist us back in may this year, they walked over us 2-4 and they even did not use there best players. I followed there matches to lead to world cup and they are getting better. Our world cup will end next match for sure. i even see them beating Argentina , Belgium are masters in cleaning up even the best defence and striking on even the smallest change

    1. Belgium clearly are a stronger and more talented team. But their victories in their group weren’t as impressive as the Dutch and France.

      All along, my worry wasn’t about our group, I thought we could get out with 4 points, it was Belgium. The way the US is playing right now, I’d say 4 to 1 for the US. Before the World Cup started, I would have been closer to 10 to 1.

      The US can win, but they have to play like they did against Portugal.

      1. Lol, you can be as patriotic as you want. You’re telling me the U.S. will 1) Beat Belgium in regular time. (they are undefeated when Courtois is keeping) and 2) Will score 4 goals while they only had a maximum of 1 goal the entire qualifiers. You, my friend, are clueless

    2. Remember the US was going to play a closed door match with Belgium before the start of the group stage in Brazil and Belgium cancelled due to travel concerns.

      Wonder if that was really the reason? It will all come down to:

      Player execution of those tactics
      Coaching decisions

  5. A game is a game and outcome is not always logical so everything can happen. but if you crunch the numers and the stats our outlook is not that good, we got a single win to pass thanks to a bad playing portugal. Its not that we played good the other team just sucked more. Even if Belgium dont run on 100% i think they still outclass us by far. I think Jurgen klinslann is trying just to keep spirits up and hopeing they get a lucky break like what happen with penalty in matc Algeria/Belgium. If you see what quality Belgian team posses and compare it to us , well you get the picture!!!!

  6. His original “analysis” had the US finishing in third in the group.

    56 v 62? So he got one more right? Silver (11 of 16) technically had a tie between Portugal and the US, so they were both as good with that random number generator analysis.

    Flipping a coin may have been as effective.

      1. And my accuracy of predicting the Pick 4 lotto numbers is much better once I update my picks after the second number is drawn.

  7. My take on the odds for each draw/game:

    I feel the odds for Chile are too low. Although I do feel Brazil will win game.

    Columbia odds should be around 70% for winning.

    Netherlands-Mexico is about right

    Costa Rica – Greece; this is an interesting one. I feel Costa Rica may have the better odds due to where the game is being played, in Recife. But the Greeks bunker know how to “bunker in”.

    I think this game will come down to PK’s.

    France-Nigeria is about right

    Germany – Algeria. Statistically and on paper the odds are correct, but (a cautious but)Germany in the past have had an attitude issue when playing certain African teams. I don’t think they’ll lose but they may get a goal scored against them early on and have to pull it together to assert themselves to win.

    Argentina – Switzerland, another on paper it’s Argentina but if Argentina dependance is on Messi only, this could be a difficult game for them.

    USA-Belgium, I think the odds are about right. The “wild card” in this match is coaching and tactics. Klinsmann vs Wilmots.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *