Top 10 Teams Most Likely to Win the 2014 FIFA World Cup: Updated Odds

Here are the odds for the top 10 teams most likely to win the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Note that the numbers were calculated before today’s World Cup games.

1. Brazil — 55%

2. Argentina — 17%

La Albiceleste keep benefiting more from the big names dropping out than Brazil, which may be because Brazil has a tough first R16 match on the horizon.

3. Germany — 7.6%

The draw against Ghana clobbered their rating.

4. Netherlands — 5.9%

Another win increases their rating and they accrue incremental improvement.

5. Chile — 3.7%

The big improvement this round. Chile are now legitimate contenders for the World Cup.

6. Colombia — 3.4%

Also in the mix for a surprise World Cup win.

7. France — 3%

They keep chewing up their easy group. Their rating is soaring because of big wins and they will face either Nigeria or Iran in the R16.

8. Mexico — 0.83%

Mexico have more chances with the big names dropping out.

9. Belgium — 0.72%

They seem intent on making their World Cup as difficult as possible but are now on the top ten list and will likely face the USA or Ghana in R16.

10. USA — 0.72%

The USA were one minute away from being in 8th place on this list.

Odds are according to Chris McFarland of Share Draft.

Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

SEE MORE — Everything you need to know about the World Cup.

11 thoughts on “Top 10 Teams Most Likely to Win the 2014 FIFA World Cup: Updated Odds”

  1. France is looking very strong, but are allegedly 100 to 1 odds (virtually the same as the US?!).

    Brazil has to play Chile or the Netherlands. Then would likely play Uruguay, Italy, or Columbia in the quarterfinals. Then France or Germany in the semis.

    Just what is being entered into the computer that makes Brazil winning this thing at better than 2 to 1?

    1. Pounding 3rd rate teams does mean crap who did they go up against Ecuador, Honduras & Swiss Cheese? They have it easy also on R16 where they face off with Iran or Nigeria. As soon as they meet real competition they’re going down against Germany, which by the way France has only beaten Germany once since 1990.

    2. “Just what is being entered into the computer that makes Brazil winning this thing at better than 2 to 1?”

      Um something called home field advantage.

  2. So you tie a good Ghana team and it hurts your chances, but you tie a Mexican team and it doesn’t (one could easily argue Ghana is better than Mexico)? As usual these don’t mean a thing.

    1. Ghana is nowhere near Mexico level as they are playing in the World Cup. Ghana would’ve lost to Brazil and Croatia easily.

    1. Neither USA or Mexico have lost a game whereas Italy has. I agree Costa Rica should have more than 1% around the Chile – Colombia area. Uruguay was one of the favorites to win the Cup probably 4th on this list until Costa Rica put them in the place 3:1.

  3. All bullsh*t. Argentina looks like sh*t, and Ghana would not have “easily” lost to Mexico or Croatia as they have proven themselves to be a world class team many times in the recent years. No such thing as an “easy” opponent anymore, many games in this Cup have showed that.

  4. Brazil will face plenty of problems winning the first semi final today. Unless they attack from the beginning, German being the most balanced side will over come Brazil.

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