England’s Odds Of Qualifying For Next Round Drop From 33% to 3%

Although not yet finished, England are in a difficult spot. After England’s 2-1 defeat against Uruguay, England’s odds of advancing to the next round have dropped from 33% to 3%. It’s still possible they can squeeze into second place (see above graphic).

Meanwhile, here are the other odds of note after the World Cup matches from the previous two days:

1. Uruguay are loving Luis Suarez’s return, to the tune of 52% odds of advancement, up from 25%.

2. Costa Rica’s odds increased from 69% to 76% — even before they’ve played today’s game against Italy.

3. Italy’s results are interesting. Their odds declined from 73% to 70%. How could that be? Well, Uruguay’s rating improved because they beat a good England team. A better rating means that Italy is no longer as likely to win against Uruguay in Round 3. A subtle change. Also interesting, Italy is less likely to advance than Costa Rica, but more likely to finish first in the group.

4. Brazil, despite the draw with Mexico, is still in a good position to advance. Odds are 99.75% because the simulation has difficulty envisioning a Cameroon victory. A Cameroon victory is so unlikely that Brazil still wins first place 96% of the time.

5. Mexico’s odds are 70%, compared to 62% before the draw with Brazil. Although rated almost equivalent to Croatia, Mexico has the advantage because a draw takes them through.

6. Netherlands finish first in the group 66% of the time. Since they have the tiebreaker over Chile, a draw puts them in first place.

7. Congratulations to Colombia! They still have a very small chance of finishing second (0.99%) and a much greater chance of spoiling Japan’s chance of advancing.

8. Japan has only 6% odds of making the Round of 16.

9. Greece, even though they have only a single point and are behind Japan on the tie-breaker, still have 26% odds of advancing. Even though they are more likely than Japan to advance, they are also more likely to finish in fourth place! Very strange circumstances.

10. Ivory Coast is in a good position but even a draw might not be enough, if Japan win by two goals or win by one, 3-2. Odds of advancing for Ivory Coast are 68%.

Read Chris’s simulations of who will advance past the group stage, as well as who will advance through the knockout stages to win the World Cup.

Pages 1 2


  1. Abdirahman June 20, 2014
  2. NeilO June 20, 2014
  3. Scott Goin June 20, 2014

Leave a Reply