Well, the first gameweek of the Fantasy Premier League season is complete. There’s plenty to digest as we get a first real evaluation of how teams are shaping up in reality and what the repercussions are in fantasy. There is no other gameweek during the FPL season that has more impact on deciding what to do with your team more than the aftermath of GW1 heading into GW2. It’s one thing while the season is in full swing to react to a transfer or two you’ve made, or what to do about an injury or a player losing his spot in the starting XI. But after GW1, you have to react and consider the selections of ALL 15 players you started the season with, while also considering the unpredicted players who shined in GW1 that you don’t own. Now you really need to consider building your budget, and that involves dropping and adding your players at the right time.
Generally, as a rule of thumb, you do not want to make your transfers for the week until as close to the deadline as possible. The logic is simple. A lot can happen between a player bagging a brace on a Saturday and the following week’s deadline — mainly, an injury during training. Customarily, managers of Premier League clubs hold a press conference on the Friday before their weekend match. Much information can be gleaned from these reports, as managers will either be kind enough to state if a player is available for selection or the not-so-kind will at least drop a hint to their intentions. Once all the “pressers” have been released, it’s safe to go ahead and make your transfer as there is little to no further information given from any club between then and the deadline.
Now, while it is logical to play it safe and wait until the last minute to make your transfers, sometimes it is worth it to take risks and make your transfers early. While the specific reasons vary a bit for doing this, there is one driving force behind taking this risk….MONEY. As mentioned in the introductory column, it is vital to gain an edge in this game over the casual player by monitoring the rising and falling prices of players, and planning your transfers accordingly. Each night, roughly around 9:45pm EST, the FPL game processes the transfer movement by managers in the game, and based on a combination of ownership percentage and movement of a given player, will increase or decrease a players cost by 0.1. Remember this: A player’s price cannot increase or decrease by more than 0.3 in a given gameweek.
Get to know the statistical filters offered by the Fantasy Premier League game on the Transfers page of your team. They are your friends. You can monitor two statistics in these filters that will give you an idea of players in the game who are about to rise or fall. Mainly, the “transfers in/out (by round)” filter will offer a clue as to who to expect to change in price, but you can get an even more accurate idea by comparing this filter for a particular player to the “teams selected by %” filter. The more ownership of a player, the more transfers in or out it takes to affect their cost. Conversely, the players with low ownership take less total transfers in or out to cause a price change. There are resources that provide daily projections/predictions for price changes out there. One I personally use is totalfpl.com. Bear in mind, information offered on this subject is not recognized by the FPL game as being official or accurate. Use at your own discretion.