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Are Liverpool Taking the Wrong Type of Shots?

anfield Are Liverpool Taking the Wrong Type of Shots?

When Brendan Rodgers got the Liverpool job, he brought in a very Spanish-Dutch style of play. Possession is everything. All offensive and defensive work starts with the ball. When you are without the ball you need to win it back as quickly as possible. Rodgers has already spoken about his desire to see Liverpool play and win through domination of the playing zone. “Death by football” was his direct quote.

The Spanish style popularized by Barcelona and La Roja also accepts the Total Football idea of only requiring one strategy. When Barcelona are losing, they don’t throw balls into the box without thinking. They continue their strategy of passing around the opponent. If your Plan A is good enough, you won’t need a Plan B. Rodgers has supported this notion too, in shooting down the idea that he would seek to recall Andy Carroll from West Ham in January due to Liverpool’s lack of strikers. Liverpool’s manager said throwing on a large center forward in the dying moments of the game was a tactic that reeked of desperation, and wasn’t one he wanted to impart on his side. It’s the right message. Ninety nine times out of 100, Barcelona’s plan works. Occasionally Chelsea or Celtic will win but that always requires a huge amount of luck on their part. For example Chelsea only progressed in the Champions League last season because of Messi’s uncharacteristic penalty miss.

So Liverpool’s strategy is quite simple — keep the ball, rest with the ball. Recycle possession and tire your opponent. There should be constant movement by offensive players so that when a defender makes a mistake, it’s punished. The theory behind this is that constant possession in the opposition half should lead to better chances, chances closer to the opposition goal. Chances that are easier to finish. For example, lots of Barcelona goals are simply tap-ins resulting from getting behind the opposition defense and squaring the ball. When you’re dealing with a Liverpool side who struggle to finish their chances, creating high quality scoring opportunities is paramount.

Yet for all the possession football, the results have stayed largely the same as last season. Liverpool still largely outplay their opponents, taking eight more shots a game, but they don’t score nearly enough. So far Rodgers’ possession football seems to have taken hold, with Liverpool averaging 58% possession, but their dominance is often sterile. Too often it seems that they play tidily in non-threatening areas but lose their composure in the final third.

Scoring Stats after 10 Matches

Team Goals Shots Shots Per Match Shots on Target Shooting Accuracy Shots Per Goal
Man City

18

190

19

65

34.2%

10.6

Man United

26

156

15.6

59

37.8%

6

Arsenal

15

166

16.6

50

30.1%

11.1

Tottenham

17

178

17.8

60

33.7%

10.5

Newcastle

12

122

12.2

36

29.5%

10.2

Chelsea

22

147

14.7

57

38.8%

6.7

Everton

19

200

20

63

31.5%

10.5

Liverpool

13

189

18.9

44

23.3%

14.5

It’s easy to see that when compared to their rivals for the lucrative Champions League places, Liverpool are an anomaly. The lowest shooting percentage by far, and the most shots required to score a goal. They’ve only scored one goal more than Newcastle, and even Alan Pardew has admitted his side has started the season quite poorly. Liverpool have been playing reasonably well, with a reasonably healthy squad. They’re just not reaping their rewards.

It’s obvious that the secret to scoring the most goals isn’t to do it by volume. Manchester United and Chelsea have scored the most goals and only Newcastle has taken less shots than those two teams.

The key is to get good shots, shots that you can put on target. Shots that Liverpool’s system is supposedly designed to find.

Opponent

Liverpool Shots

Shots on Target

Shots Outside Box

Shot Outside Box on Target

Percentage of Shots Outside Box

Newcastle

23

6

12

1

52%

Everton

16

3

6

2

38%

Reading

27

7

13

1

48%

Stoke City

18

2

8

2

44%

Norwich City

16

5

6

4

38%

Man United

14

6

4

3

29%

Sunderland

23

6

10

1

44%

Arsenal

19

4

7

2

37%

Man City

17

3

11

2

65%

West Brom

16

2

6

1

38%

Breaking down Liverpool’s shot selection throughout this season, it becomes apparent that the Reds are still struggling to find a cutting edge. Currently Liverpool are taking 44% of their shots from outside the box, far too high for a side who have only one semi-consistent long range striker of the ball in Steven Gerrard. Barcelona, in comparison, only take 37% of their shots from outside the box and they face sides who show far less ambition than those that play Liverpool. The Catalans also win quite a few more free kicks in dangerous positions.

Watching Liverpool, one gets the idea that they get frustrated far too easily and resort to low percentage efforts. Such shots usually are blocked or hand the goalkeeper a chance to clear his lines, forcing Liverpool to have to press hard and regain possession.

Steven Gerrard is representative of Liverpool’s struggles. Being played in a deeper role by Rodgers, it seems he hardly ever gets in the opposition penalty area anymore. For example, all five of his shots against Newcastle were from outside the box, all blocked or off target. When Gerrard is making surging midfield runs, like against Manchester United when he scored from inside the opposition penalty area, Liverpool look a different team. Runners from midfield also drag the defense out of position, enabling shots from distance to be uncontested and more likely to succeed. With driving runs against Manchester United from Gerrard and Suso, even after Shelvey was sent off, Liverpool had three out of their four long distance shots on target.

In fact, the game in which Liverpool arguably looked most superior was one of the flukiest results of their season. Four out of five goals against Norwich came from outside the box, and all five shots on targets were goals. That won’t happen every week, and it hasn’t. Similarly, 65% of Liverpool’s shots against Manchester City were from outside the penalty area, but one of them was Luis Suarez’s miraculous free kick.

Liverpool’s opponents have realized that the easy way to defend against the Reds is to let them have the first two-thirds of the pitch, rendering their possession sterile. When the final third is cramped for room, Liverpool all too readily abandon their desire for passing football and snatch at the first shooting opportunity.

If Liverpool continues on this path, then the entire season will be a continuation of its first 10 games. The Merseyside club will dominate possession but everything will collapse like a house of cards in the final third, bar one or two lucky games. This is not a path to the top four.

This entry was posted in Leagues: EPL, Liverpool. Bookmark the permalink.

10 Responses to Are Liverpool Taking the Wrong Type of Shots?

  1. Harry says:

    The problem with Liverpool’s possession is that it rarely ends with good scoring opportunities. Most of their scoring chances and golas scored have come from more direct play.

    Liverpool don’t have the personnel to play like Barcelona and create chances scoring opportunities from that style of play. Most of Liverpool’s passing the ball around has been in their own half. That’s not going to enable you to score, only prevents the other team from having the ball.

  2. Anita says:

    Could be or maybe they are just a lousy team that don’t have potential!

  3. Guy says:

    Answer, “Yes, the kind that don’t go in the net.”

  4. Marc L says:

    Quote: “throwing on a large center forward in the dying moments of the game was a tactic that reeked of desperation”

    Well maybe, but it has kind of worked for Man City with Edin Dzeko about 5 times already this season. And it is not like City plays crazy Sam Allardyce long-ball on a general basis either.

    In other words it is not a zero-sum game. Liverpool badly needs more options up front and all the rationalizing in the world isn’t going to change that fact. But maybe Rodgers wants to stay “true” to his “system” and rack up 1-1 draws all year long. I mean, until they run you him of town for being 13th on the table with a supposedly “big” club.

    • Sameer says:

      I would say Edin Dzeko is a “big center forward” only because he’s tall. His touch is excellent and he has a good awareness of space. Not a lot of his late goals have been hopeful balls punted at him which was what Rodgers was trying to allude to.

      Liverpool do need clinical finishers though, you’re right about that. But I would say what this post is about is that they’re not fully playing Rodger’s system yet. You’re not supposed to run the opponent ragged only to let them off the hook with a low percentage effort. That’s not the point of the system as I see it.

      • Tim says:

        Exactly.

        The “system” can’t and won’t rise above the talent level of the players that are implementing it.

        Suarez can’t do it all on his own.

  5. Mufc77 says:

    The way some People go on about Barcalona you would think they are the only team inworld football that knows how to “keep possession” of the ball.

    You can have 99% of the possession all you want it doesn’t mean $hit if you don’t put the ball in the back of the net.

  6. Dust says:

    Why are the scoring stats after 10 games table in the order it is?

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