# Manchester United 1-0 Everton: Analysis of Tactics and Formations (Video)

Editor’s note: We’re trying out a new feature on EPL Talk that we want to get your feedback on. It’s a new segment called Chalk Talk, which takes a close look at the tactics and formations featured in Premier League matches and brings them to you in a totally different format, video. While we don’t have rights to show the actual game highlights, we can provide you chalkboards which examine some of the key moments in games as well as some very interesting tactical and formation analysis that you may have not seen while watching the match.

Hopefully you enjoy the new format. But please share your feedback in the comments section below so we can improve. Thanks in advance for your input.

## 22 Responses to Manchester United 1-0 Everton: Analysis of Tactics and Formations (Video)

With what program did you do the formation part? powerpoint?

Yes, interested to know what program/website you used before going to The Guardian’s Chalkboard.

Yes, MS PowerPoint 2007.

I Think video is good idea

I was at the man u V Everton game yesterday I am an everton supporter your comments on the game are very intresting and I totally agree I feel sure Man u are feeling greatful this game is out of the way many thanks for your input

Regads

Phil R

this is the best tactical analysis I have ever come accross….keep up the great work

Being a nerdy mathematician/engineer, I ran some calculations on the probability that United win the league this season (using Monte Carlo runs). I set everything up very conservative against United (to get a proper lower bound) and even assumed that Arsenal and Chelsea would have a better goal-difference than Utd (if we were level on pts). The calculations are based on the following simple and fixed probabilities:

These are the following 4 games left for Top 3 teams (note: I assume Arsenal win tomorrow vs. Bolton):

Utd: Arsenal (a), Chelsea (h), Blackburn (a), Blackpool (h)

CFC: Tottenham (h), United (a), Newcastle (h), Everton (a)

AFC: United (h), Stoke (a), Aston Villa (h), Fulham (a)

And here are the fixed probabilities (in %) that Utd (win, draw, lose) each game:

Utd vs. Arsenal (40, 30, 30)

Utd vs. Chelsea (30, 40, 30)

Utd. vs. Blackburn (40, 45, 15)

Utd. vs. Blackpool (50, 40, 10)

And here are the fixed probabilities (in %) that Chelsea (win/draw/lose) each game:

CFC vs. Tottenham (55, 25, 20)

CFC vs. United (30, 40, 30)

CFC vs. Newcastle (70, 20, 10)

CFC vs. Everton (50, 30, 20)

And here are the fixed probabilities (in %) that Arsenal (win/draw/lose) each game:

AFC vs. United (30, 30, 40)

AFC vs. Stoke (40, 30, 30)

AFC vs. Villa (50, 30, 20)

AFC vs. Fulham (50, 40, 10)

————

Using those probabilities above (which I think are conservative), I get the following results:

The probability that United win the EPL title is 74%The probability that Chelsea win the title is 16%

The probability that Arsenal win the title is 10%

That is a really good lower bound considering the pessimism/ bias against United that I built into the model.

Note also how Chelsea are 60% more likely than Arsenal to win the title, which agrees with most commentators on the subject.

BEL19VE!!!!!

PS: For the nerds on here, I used 100,000 samples in my Monte Carlo run.

PPS: Yes, it is crude and does not take into account dynamics as games are played and that probabilities should change between games (bayesian approach shouldn’t be too bad though).

You forgot to include Arsenal’s game against Bolton in your Calculation.

Great video, i’m looking forward to more of these. The statistics on clearings at the end, where are they available?

You can create chalkboards of any Premier League match at the following link:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/chalkboards/create

A number of different Opta-recorded stats are available for analysis. It’s something that can distract a guy like me for hours.

I assumed they won (“note: I assume Arsenal win tomorrow vs. Bolton”)

I tried to bias it against United as much as possible to get a lower bound on the probability of United winning the title.

Ahh sorry. Nice analysis then, unfortunately moot after todays game. Thanks for the link Earl.

yup Arsenal are out.

Two-horse race again, but United are heavy favorites (~90%)

It is a GREAT idea, period. Analysis always appeals greatly to my brain. Look forward to seeing more in the same vein here.

Great analysis! Strange to see an American so knowledgeable about the game!

I completely agree about the Baines point and obviously Rooney’s midfield role. I’d have to say that Everton’s left sided attempt was hindered by Bilyadinetov’s poor play and Neville’s uncreative ability. But of course, Everton were playing for the draw. Overall, I thought David Moyes had played his tactics very well but to no avail.

Very informative, please continue the feature, particularly with United matches! The analysis is concise, brief, and educates on football tactics.

Hey Earl, I thought it showed knowledge of the game and your capabilities as a tactician. Keep up the good work.

Maybe just dress a bit more professionally if your gonna hang out in the corner. It would make you more credible.

Cheers.

Yeah, that was a T-Shirt I got for free after buying a Fender amp. Given the positive feedback, we’ll make more of these, and I’ll try to look the part.

Super idea EPL, will be a great fixture from now on but…

Oy,would have been nice to have seen the anaylsis of the Chelsea 2-1 win at Stamford. How would you figure in fouls not given?

Informative. Intelligent. Comprehensive. Knowledgeable lad. Hope to see more. Well-done!

I just wanted to say that you did a really good job with this Earl. My only wish is that EPL Talk had the rights to show highlights. I guess that will just remain a dream for now.

Enjoyed the chalk talk – keep them coming!

That was great.

I’d love it if you could isolate a couple of instances where attacks worked/were shut down in the first powerpoint section, like you did with the Chalkboard analysis, but with some animation.

That would be awesome.